Public debt: analysis of the last five years
What the figures of the Ministry of Finance show about public sector debt in 2021–2026: pace, structure, ratio to GDP, inflation, cost of servicing.
Main conclusions
- Pace. Public sector debt grew from 81,828 million lei at the end of 2021 to 138,536 million at the end of 2025 (+69.3 %) and to 146,392 million on 30.06.2026 (+78.9 % against 2021). State debt, the main part, grew from 77,753 to 142,793 million lei (+83.7 %).
- Against the economy. Public sector debt rose from 33.8 % of GDP (2021) to 39.2 % of GDP (2025, NBS preliminary GDP estimate); the ratio is not calculated for 2026 because only the GDP of the first half is published.
- In real terms. Adjusted for inflation (CPI December to December, 55.1 % cumulative in 2022–2025), public sector debt grew by 9.2 % in 2021–2025, not by 69.3 %. Real GDP changed by −0.8 % in total in 2022–2025.
- Structure. The share of external debt in state debt was 57.2 % at the end of 2021, reached 63.8 % at the end of 2024 (the maximum) and is 59.8 % on 30.06.2026. In 2022 and 2024 the growth came mainly from external sources; in 2023, 2025 and the first half of 2026 more from internal debt.
- Domestic market. Internal state debt (government securities) grew from 33,281 million lei (December 2021) to 60,183 million lei (September 2026), +80.8 %; issues on the primary market grew from 18,778 to 47,068 million lei. The package issued “for purposes set by law” fell from 12,351 to 11,061 million lei.
- Cost. The weighted average rate on government securities was 5.64 % in 2021, 17.76 % in 2022, 8.62 % in 2023, 4.96 % in 2024, 9.08 % in 2025 and 9.60 % in the first 9 months of 2026. State budget expenditure on “Debt service” grew from 1,897 million lei (2021) to 5,302 million (maximum, 2023) and was 4,269 million in 2025.
- Currency. The data contain no currency structure and no end-of-period exchange rates, so the growth of external debt (in lei: +92.1 % from 2021 to June 2026) cannot be split into new loans and an exchange rate effect. The annual average leu/USD rate ranged from 17.68 to 18.90 in 2021–2024.
1. Pace and volume
At the end of 2021 public sector debt was 81,828 million lei, at the end of 2025 138,536, and on 30.06.2026 146,392 million lei. State debt makes up 97.5 % of the total; the rest is the debt of the NBM, of public sector enterprises and of local governments (UAT), 5,759 million lei at the end of 2025.
The annual increase of state debt was 9,932 million lei in 2021, 16,907 in 2022, 9,343 in 2023, 17,391 in 2024 and 11,383 in 2025; in the first half of 2026 it was 10,016 million lei, more than in the whole of 2023. 2022 and 2024 were the fastest years.
2. Against GDP and prices
Public sector debt was 36.4 % of GDP at the end of 2020, 33.8 % in 2021, 35.9 % in 2022, 35.6 % in 2023, 38.8 % in 2024 and 39.2 % in 2025 (preliminary GDP). State debt to GDP: 32.1 % in 2021 and 37.6 % in 2025. The ratio rose between 2023 and 2024 while real GDP grew by only +0.3 %.
Inflation reduced the real value of the debt: at the prices of the end of 2021, the debt at the end of 2025 equals 89,321 million lei against 81,828 million in 2021, that is +9.2 %. A considerable part of the nominal growth (69.3 %) is therefore explained by prices; the real growth stays positive. GDP for 2025 is the NBS preliminary estimate of 11.03.2026 and may be revised; the ratio is not calculated for 2026.
3. External and internal debt, currency
External state debt grew from 44,471 million lei (2021) to 85,449 million (30.06.2026), +92.1 %; internal from 33,281 to 57,344 million, +72.3 %. External loans grew from 37,442 to 78,667 million lei; the SDR allocation (special drawing rights, IMF) from 2,919 million (2020) to 7,030 (2021) in a single increase and has hardly changed since (6,782 million in 2026).
External growth was large in 2022 (15,696 million lei) and 2024 (13,096), smaller in 2023 (4,169) and 2025 (3,349). Internal debt grew most in 2025 (8,034 million lei) and in the first half of 2026 (5,349). The share of external debt in state debt went from 63.8 % (maximum, 2024) to 59.8 %.
External debt is expressed in lei, so it includes exchange rate movements. The annual average leu/USD rate was 17.68 (2021), 18.90 (2022; +6.9 %) and 17.79 (2024); leu/EUR between 19.25 and 20.93. A move of the average rate of this size does not by itself explain growth of 92.1 %, but an exact split is impossible without the currency structure and the end-of-period rates.
NBS data used in the analysis
| Year | Average rate lei/USD | Average rate lei/EUR | CPI Dec/Dec, % | CPI annual average, % | Nominal GDP, million lei | Real GDP, change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17.32 | 19.74 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 199,734 | −8.3 |
| 2021 | 17.68 | 20.93 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 242,079 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 18.90 | 19.90 | 30.2 | 28.7 | 274,488 | −4.6 |
| 2023 | 18.16 | 19.64 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 303,554 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 17.79 | 19.25 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 323,932 | 0.3 |
| 2025* | — | — | 6.8 | 7.8 | 353,521 | 2.4 |
* GDP and real growth for 2025: NBS preliminary estimate (11.03.2026), not in the databank; may be revised.
4. The domestic market and the cost of borrowing
On the domestic market the share of primary market issues in internal debt grew from 56.4 % (December 2021) to 78.2 % (September 2026). The package “for purposes set by law” fell from 12,351 to 11,061 million lei, converted securities from 2,152 to 984 million lei, and direct placement to individuals, which appears in the series in 2024 (230 million lei at the end of the year), reached 1,070 million lei.
The weighted average rate on securities sold at auctions was 5.19 % in 2020, 5.64 % in 2021, 17.76 % in 2022 (the maximum), 8.62 % in 2023, 4.96 % in 2024, 9.08 % in 2025 and 9.60 % in January–September 2026. Against December-to-December inflation (13.9 %, 30.2 %, 4.2 %, 7.0 %, 6.8 %) the difference was negative in 2021, 2022 and 2024 (−8.3, −12.5, −2.0 pp) and positive in 2023 and 2025 (+4.4, +2.2 pp). The comparison is indicative: the rates are averages of the auctions of the year, inflation is measured at year end.
5. Debt service
In the state budget, expenditure on “Debt service” was 1,897 million lei in 2021, 2,645 in 2022, 5,302 in 2023, 4,322 in 2024 and 4,269 in 2025, 2.2 times more in 2025 than in 2021. As a share of state budget revenue: 3.8 %, 4.5 %, 8.2 %, 6.5 %, 5.6 %.
The 2023 maximum comes after 2022, the year with the highest average rate on securities (17.76 %), when the debt was already 34 % higher than at the end of 2021. The data show only the evolution of the expenditure; its structure (interest, fees, domestic/external part) is not in the files analysed.
6. Other sectors: enterprises, local governments, NBM
The direct debt of public sector enterprises was 1,376 million lei at the end of 2021, 3,336 at the end of 2025, 4,559 on 31.03.2026 and 1,407 on 30.06.2026. The source does not explain the jumps between quarters. Debt of local governments: 1,060 million (2021) and 1,840 (2025). NBM debt fell from 2,429 million (2020) to 583 (2025).
million lei
| Date | State debt | NBM | Enterprises | UAT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.12.2020 | 67,821 | 2,429 | 1,835 | 551 | 72,636 |
| 31.12.2021 | 77,753 | 1,640 | 1,376 | 1,060 | 81,828 |
| 31.12.2022 | 94,660 | 1,229 | 1,211 | 1,381 | 98,481 |
| 31.12.2023 | 104,003 | 1,038 | 950 | 1,940 | 107,931 |
| 31.12.2024 | 121,394 | 881 | 1,307 | 1,983 | 125,566 |
| 31.12.2025 | 132,777 | 583 | 3,336 | 1,840 | 138,536 |
| 31.03.2026 | 142,621 | 565 | 4,559 | 1,786 | 149,532 |
| 30.06.2026 | 142,793 | 495 | 1,407 | 1,697 | 146,392 |
What these data cannot show
- There are no data on the currency structure, maturities, repayment schedule and rates on individual loans, so the exchange rate effect, refinancing risk and the effective cost cannot be separated.
- GDP for 2025 is the NBS preliminary estimate (release of 11.03.2026; it is not in the databank) and may be revised; the ratio is not calculated for 2026. Exchange rates are annual averages, not year-end rates.
- The first quarter of 2025 is missing, and July 2019, September 2023 and August 2025 are missing in the monthly series of internal debt (see the notes under the tables); the series starts in October 2016 because of a break in the source.
- The data are shown at nominal value as in the files of the Ministry of Finance; they were not checked against other sources.
Method
- Debt in real terms = the nominal year-end value divided by the product of the December-to-December consumer price indices from 2022 to the year in question (base: end of 2021).
- Ratio to GDP = year-end debt / nominal GDP of the same year (million lei).
Data: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Moldova, Open Data Portal (dataset.gov.md): Datoria sectorului public, Soldul datoriei de stat interne. GDP, consumer price index and average exchange rates: National Bureau of Statistics, tables CNT208100 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md); PRE010100 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md); PRE010200 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md) (separate pages on this site). Files downloaded on 27.10.2026. GDP for 2025 (preliminary estimate) and the first half of 2026: NBS releases: GDP in the fourth quarter and in 2025; GDP in the second quarter and first semester 2026.