State budget: analysis of the last five years
What the execution of the state budget shows in 2021–2025: revenue, expenditure, deficit, their structure, ratio to GDP and inflation, financing of the deficit and the cost of debt.
Main conclusions
- Pace. State budget revenue grew from 49,384 million lei (2021) to 76,381 million (2025), +54.7 %, and expenditure from 54,117 to 92,094 million, +70.2 %. The deficit (budget balance) was −4,733, −9,325, −16,124, −13,090, −15,713 million lei in 2021–2025; 58,985 million lei in total.
- In real terms. Consumer prices rose by 64.7 % in 2022–2025 (annual average CPI, cumulative). At 2021 prices revenue changed by −6.1 % and expenditure by +3.3 %: expenditure grew in real terms and revenue fell in real terms, although both grew nominally.
- Against GDP. Revenue was 20.4 %, 21.6 %, 21.3 %, 20.7 %, 21.6 % of GDP in 2021–2025; expenditure 22.4 %, 25.0 %, 26.6 %, 24.7 %, 26.1 %; deficit 2.0 %, 3.4 %, 5.3 %, 4.0 %, 4.4 %. GDP for 2025 is the NBS preliminary estimate.
- Revenue structure. Taxes and fees make up 88.1 % of revenue in 2025 (90.1 % in 2021); VAT 48.8 %, excise duties 16.5 %, income taxes 16.9 %. Grants reached 7.3 % of revenue in 2022 and 8.0 % in 2023 (4,306 and 5,137 million lei), then 3.7 % in 2024 and 5.9 % in 2025.
- Expenditure. Personnel costs are 14.8 % of expenditure, transfers 55.1 %. By function, social protection grew from 11,875 to 24,660 million lei (+107.7 %, real +26.1 %), education from 12,453 to 20,910 (+67.9 %), defence from 769 to 1,823 (+137.0 %); health +20.8 % nominal (−26.7 % real).
- Financing of the deficit. In 2021–2025 the deficit was covered by internal debt (21,025 million lei), external loans (46,114), financial assets (−6,815) and the change in cash balances (−1,339). The growth of state debt between the end of 2020 and the end of 2025 (64,956 million lei) exceeded the cumulative deficit (58,985) by 5,971 million lei.
- Cost of debt. Debt service grew from 1,897 million lei (3.8 % of revenue) in 2021 to 5,302 million in 2023 and 4,269 million (5.6 %) in 2025.
1. Revenue and expenditure: nominal and real
Executed state budget revenue was 49,384 million lei in 2021, 59,248 in 2022, 64,604 in 2023, 66,980 in 2024 and 76,381 in 2025. Expenditure: 54,117, 68,573, 80,727, 80,070, 92,094. The budget balance was negative every year; the largest deficit was in 2023 (16,124 million lei).
At 2021 prices (annual average CPI, 2022–2025 cumulative: 64.7 %), revenue of 2025 equals 46,372 million lei and expenditure 55,912 million lei. The real growth of expenditure (+3.3 %) is higher than that of revenue (−6.1 %), and the difference shows in the deficit.
2. Against GDP
State budget revenue was 20.4 %, 21.6 %, 21.3 %, 20.7 % and 21.6 % of GDP in 2021–2025; expenditure 22.4 %, 25.0 %, 26.6 %, 24.7 % and 26.1 %; deficit 2.0 %, 3.4 %, 5.3 % (the largest), 4.0 % and 4.4 %.
Nominal GDP: 242,079 (2021), 274,488, 303,554, 323,932 (2024), 353,521 million lei (2025, NBS preliminary estimate of 11.03.2026, may be revised). Real GDP changed by +13.9 % in 2021, −4.6 % in 2022, +1.2 % in 2023, +0.3 % in 2024 and +2.4 % in 2025.
NBS data used in the analysis
| Year | Average rate lei/USD | Average rate lei/EUR | CPI Dec/Dec, % | CPI annual average, % | Nominal GDP, million lei | Real GDP, change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17.32 | 19.74 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 199,734 | −8.3 |
| 2021 | 17.68 | 20.93 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 242,079 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 18.90 | 19.90 | 30.2 | 28.7 | 274,488 | −4.6 |
| 2023 | 18.16 | 19.64 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 303,554 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 17.79 | 19.25 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 323,932 | 0.3 |
| 2025* | — | — | 6.8 | 7.8 | 353,521 | 2.4 |
* GDP and real growth for 2025: NBS preliminary estimate (11.03.2026), not in the databank; may be revised.
3. Revenue structure
Taxes and fees made up 90.1 % of revenue in 2021 and 88.1 % in 2025; in value +51.2 % over the period. VAT grew from 25,409 to 37,250 million lei (+46.6 %), excise duties from 7,590 to 12,588, income taxes from 7,695 to 12,895 million lei.
External grants were 2,291 million lei in 2021 (4.6 % of revenue), 4,306 in 2022 (7.3 %), 5,137 in 2023 (8.0 %), 2,485 in 2024 (3.7 %) and 4,504 in 2025 (5.9 %). The data show only the volume; their purpose is not in the files analysed.
4. Expenditure structure
Personnel costs were 7,804 million lei in 2021 and 13,661 in 2025 (14.4 % and 14.8 % of expenditure); transfers within the national public budget 31,169 and 50,763 million lei (57.6 % and 55.1 %).
By functional classification the largest are social protection (26.8 % of expenditure in 2025, 21.9 % in 2021), education (22.7 %, 23.0 %), general public services (12.9 %, 14.7 %), economic affairs (12.2 %, 12.6 %) and health (10.0 %, 14.1 %). Defence expenditure grew by 137.0 % (from 769 to 1,823 million lei) but its share remains small (2.0 %). All functions are in the table below.
- Social protection24,66026.8 %nominal +107.7 % · real +26.1 %
- Education20,91022.7 %nominal +67.9 % · real +1.9 %
- General public services11,83512.9 %nominal +49.0 % · real −9.5 %
- Economic affairs11,28112.2 %nominal +65.2 % · real +0.3 %
- Health9,23810.0 %nominal +20.8 % · real −26.7 %
- Public order and national security8,3759.1 %nominal +64.6 % · real −0.1 %
- National defence1,8232.0 %nominal +137.0 % · real +43.9 %
- Culture, sport, youth, religion and recreation1,7351.9 %nominal +91.3 % · real +16.1 %
- Housing and community services1,6211.8 %nominal +414.5 % · real +212.3 %
- Environmental protection6180.7 %nominal +110.6 % · real +27.9 %
million lei for 2021 and 2025; shares in %; change in %
| Function | 2021 | 2025 | % 2021 | % 2025 | nominal | real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General public services | 7,941 | 11,835 | 14.7 % | 12.9 % | +49.0 % | −9.5 % |
| National defence | 769 | 1,823 | 1.4 % | 2.0 % | +137.0 % | +43.9 % |
| Public order and national security | 5,088 | 8,375 | 9.4 % | 9.1 % | +64.6 % | −0.1 % |
| Economic affairs | 6,827 | 11,281 | 12.6 % | 12.2 % | +65.2 % | +0.3 % |
| Environmental protection | 293 | 618 | 0.5 % | 0.7 % | +110.6 % | +27.9 % |
| Housing and community services | 315 | 1,621 | 0.6 % | 1.8 % | +414.5 % | +212.3 % |
| Health | 7,648 | 9,238 | 14.1 % | 10.0 % | +20.8 % | −26.7 % |
| Culture, sport, youth, religion and recreation | 907 | 1,735 | 1.7 % | 1.9 % | +91.3 % | +16.1 % |
| Education | 12,453 | 20,910 | 23.0 % | 22.7 % | +67.9 % | +1.9 % |
| Social protection | 11,875 | 24,660 | 21.9 % | 26.8 % | +107.7 % | +26.1 % |
5. The deficit and how it is financed
The deficit is covered from “sources of financing”: debt (internal and external), financial assets and the change in cash balances. In 2021–2025 internal debt brought 21,025 million lei and external loans 46,114 million lei. In 2022 and 2024 external financing prevailed (12,931 and 12,243 million lei), in 2023 and 2025 internal (6,211 against 8,489 in 2023 and 6,669 against 4,299 in 2025).
State debt grew by 64,956 million lei between the end of 2020 and the end of 2025, 5,971 million lei more than the cumulative deficit of the state budget (58,985 million lei). The difference may come from the change in cash balances, the exchange rate on external debt and other operations; the data do not allow separating them.
6. Debt service in the budget
Expenditure on “Debt service” (functional code 017) grew from 1,897 million lei (3.8 % of revenue) in 2021 to 5,302 million (8.2 %) in 2023, then fell to 4,322 (6.5 %) in 2024 and 4,269 (5.6 %) in 2025, although debt kept growing. The link with the debt and with interest rates is described in the analysis of public debt.
What these data cannot show
- GDP for 2025 is the NBS preliminary estimate (not in the databank) and may be revised; ratios to GDP are not calculated for 2026.
- The reports cover the state budget, not the consolidated national public budget (which includes local budgets, social insurance and compulsory health insurance); the conclusions do not extend to them.
- Executed values are used; the comparison with the plan (approved and revised) is not made here. The structure by function is available for 2019–2025; 2016–2018 are laid out differently and were not processed.
- There are no data on transfers by purpose, interest versus fees in debt service, the purpose of grants and the quality of expenditure.
Method
- Real values = nominal values / the product of the annual average consumer price indices from 2022 to the year in question (base 2021).
- Ratio to GDP = annual value / nominal GDP of the same year.
Data: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Moldova, Open Data Portal (dataset.gov.md): Raport anual privind executarea bugetului de stat. GDP, consumer price index and average exchange rates: National Bureau of Statistics, tables CNT208100 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md); PRE010100 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md); PRE010200 (on this site, statbank.statistica.md) (separate pages on this site). Files downloaded on 27.10.2026. GDP for 2025 (preliminary estimate) and the first half of 2026: NBS releases: GDP in the fourth quarter and in 2025; GDP in the second quarter and first semester 2026.